Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance fell by 34,000 last week to 407,000 (last week was also revised up by 2,000, so one could see it as a 32,000 decline). This was much better than the expected level of 442,000.
We can give thanks that we have be able to get out of the “trading range that initial claims have been in for the last year. Initial claims have been generally trending down since they hit a secondary peak of 504,000 (after revisions) on 8/14. The path has, however, been erratic. Since claims can be volatile from week to week, it is better to track the four-week moving average to get a better sense of the trend.
The Four-Week Moving Average
It fell by 7,500 to 436,000. After declining sharply in the second half of 2009, the four-week moving average has been stuck in a tight trading range. We seem to be stuck in a pseudo recovery, though if the current downward trend can be sustained, there is real hope.
The economy is growing, but not at the sort of rate needed to add a significant number of jobs and to put a dent in the huge army of the unemployed. In hindsight, the run-up to 500,000 seems to be mostly a function of the Census workers being laid off (they are almost all gone now, and the Census was completed quicker, and at less cost than anyone had expected). As that effect waned, we returned to the previous baseline.
Relative to a year ago, the four week moving average is down by 67,750 or 13.5%. The graph below (from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/) charts the path of the four-week average since the start of the century. Clearly we are breaking out of the trading range to the downside. That is, after all, what makes a trading range a trading range. While I would like to see the number confirmed next week, and not reversed or revised away, it looks like we have something to be thankful for this Thanksgiving.
Continuing Claims
The data on regular continuing claims was also positive. Regular continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell by 142,000 to 4.182 million. They are down by 1.324 million or 24.0% from a year ago.
Regular claims are paid by the state governments, and run out after just 26 weeks. However, in October, half of all the unemployed had been out of work for 21.2 weeks (down from 25.5 weeks in June, but up from 20.4 weeks in September), and 41.8% had been out of work for more than 26 weeks. Just for a point of perspective, prior to the Great Recession, the highest the median duration of unemployment had ever reached was 12.3 weeks near the bottom of the 82-83 downturn.
A week from Friday we will find out if there has been any improvement in the duration of unemployment numbers. Clearly a measure of unemployment that by definition excludes 41.8% of the unemployed paints a very incomplete picture.
After the 26 weeks are up, people move over to extended benefits, which are paid for by the Federal government. These benefits can increase the total amount of time people get benefits to up to 99 weeks (depending on the unemployment rate in your state). The map below (from http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3164) shows the maximum length of benefits by state. While regular claims are down, it is in large part due to people aging out of the regular benefits and “graduating to extended benefits.
However, recently even the extended claims have started to trend down, but in an irregular fashion. This week they (the two largest programs combined) fell by 262,000 this week to 4.665 million and are up by 672,000, or 11.9% over the past year. A much better measure is the total number of people getting benefits, regardless of which level of government pays for them. Including a few other minor programs, claims fell by 316,000 in the last week, and are down by 672,000 or 7.3% over the last year.
Monday, 29 November 2010
Holiday sales encouraging, but are shoppers done?
NEW YORK (AP) -- Holiday shoppers gave retailers a happy Thanksgiving weekend, crowding stores and malls more than last year.
Add strong spending earlier this month and robust sales online, and retailers head into "Cyber Monday" encouraged. Particularly because many shoppers were buying for themselves, in addition to gifts, though mostly where they saw bargains.
But retailers remain unsure how much people will spend before Christmas in an economy that's still bumpy. Shoppers, grappling with an unemployment rate of 9.6 percent, remain careful about spending and driven by deals.
Discounts, particularly early-morning specials, were deep enough that many shoppers say they bought more than they had planned. But some say that means they're done, and they spent less than last year.
The heavy discounting and lower prices on some things, particularly LCD TVs, held down overall spending. On Friday, retailers at shopping malls had sales of $10.7 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent over last year, according to preliminary figures from ShopperTrak, a research firm that counts shoppers at 70,000 stores.
TV prices are falling almost twice as fast as they did earlier this year amid a glut. They're selling for 15-20 percent less than Christmas 2009.
Earlier buying in November also stole some sales from Friday, said ShopperTrak co-founder Bill Martin. But 2.2 percent more customers came into stores on Black Friday than last year. ShopperTrak tracks sales at stores in shopping malls, not big discounters like Wal-Mart and Target, which draw much Black Friday spending.
Sharon Collins, 57, of Wilmington, N.C., said she had planned to stagger her holiday shopping but found a lot of good buys on Black Friday at Target and Kohl's. By Saturday she had spent about $1,000, reaping savings of about 50 percent. She said she'd budgeted $2,000 but won't need it.
"I am completely done." Collins said. "Unless it is something I really need, I am not going back."
The National Retail Federation trade group estimated on Sunday that 212 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend, up from 195 million last year. A fuller picture on spending will come Thursday when retailers report November revenue.
Online, spending rose more than 14 percent from Thanksgiving Day through Saturday, according to IBM's Coremetrics. The average order rose 14 percent; the number of items per order, 15 percent. The numbers were fueled by shoppers taking advantage of deals on Black Friday.
Online research firm comScore Inc. reported late Sunday that online spending in November through Friday rose 13 percent to $11.6 billion, compared with the same 26 days a year ago.
On Thanksgiving, traditionally a lighter day for online spending, e-commerce sales rose to $407 million, up 28 percent from last year. That was helped by more stores pushing exclusive deals. Online spending is still a small piece of the holiday pie -- 8-10 percent by various estimates.
Online sellers are stretching what they call Cyber Monday promotions all week in an effort to attract shoppers.
"We're expecting the biggest Cyber Monday. We're seeing double-digit growth rates, and we don't expect it to stop," said Jerry Storch, CEO of Toys R Us, which is offering discounts on toys from Little Tikes to Imaginarium.
Cyber Monday got its name from the National Retail Federation when computer shopping was starting to become popular. People returning to work after the holiday weekend would shop online on office computers. As more homes got high-speed Internet service, Cyber Monday became less of a factor.
This year, shoppers' approach to the holidays has shifted, shaped by retailers. Black Friday is still expected to be the busiest day of the year, but spending was pulled forward as stores from Best Buy to Sears promoted discounts earlier in the month. They often pitched them as "Black Friday doorbusters" weeks before the real thing. More stores opened on Thanksgiving this year, too.
"You are going to have to look at the overall month, instead of just Black Friday," said Laura Gurski, retail practice leader at A.T. Kearney.
Lauren Beckley, a 28-year-old retail co-manager in Cincinnati, said she got a promotion at work this year but still plans to cut her holiday spending by 50 percent. This year, rather than scrambling at the last minute, she started shopping in July, taking advantage of "Christmas in July" promotions that were embraced by more retailers this year.
"I think I am bargain hunting a little more," said Beckley while browsing for DVDs at a Best Buy in suburban Cincinnati on Saturday.
Stores hope to keep shoppers coming back with continuous deals and early-morning events on weekends. But some industry analysts question whether the lull between Thanksgiving weekend and the days before Christmas will be even more pronounced than usual.
"I believe customers will be waiting for the next round of deals," Gurski added.
Stifel Nicolaus analyst Richard Jaffe described the weekend as a "success."
"I think retailers have won the battle of driving customers into the stores, but have they won the war? We won't know until January," he said.
Amy Adoniz, general store manager at Best Buy's Union Square store in Manhattan, reported steady traffic through the weekend after the frenzy Friday. The best sellers have been TVs and laptop computers, but shoppers are also throwing in extra items like Blu-ray players and cables that they hadn't planned, she said. They're also springing for more expensive items, she said.
Mall operators Taubman Centers Inc. and Macerich Co. both reported sales and traffic gains compared with last year, and traffic remained steady through the weekend. Both reported that shoppers' buying for themselves remained strong. Footwear and clothing were big sellers.
Analysts are also watching stores' inventories. Earlier this fall, many retailers worried they'd ordered too much holiday merchandise in the spring when the economy appeared to be strengthening.
There was scattered evidence those worries continue. Gap offered 50 percent discounts throughout its stores until 10 a.m. Friday, rather than discounting fewer items to draw shoppers.
Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group, said Sunday that she believed inventories were appropriate and retailer profits aren't in danger yet. Dec. 15-24, which accounts for 40 percent of holiday business, will tell the tale.
"It's the crux of the season," she said.
AP Business Writer Chip Cutter in Cincinnati contributed to this report.
Add strong spending earlier this month and robust sales online, and retailers head into "Cyber Monday" encouraged. Particularly because many shoppers were buying for themselves, in addition to gifts, though mostly where they saw bargains.
But retailers remain unsure how much people will spend before Christmas in an economy that's still bumpy. Shoppers, grappling with an unemployment rate of 9.6 percent, remain careful about spending and driven by deals.
Discounts, particularly early-morning specials, were deep enough that many shoppers say they bought more than they had planned. But some say that means they're done, and they spent less than last year.
The heavy discounting and lower prices on some things, particularly LCD TVs, held down overall spending. On Friday, retailers at shopping malls had sales of $10.7 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent over last year, according to preliminary figures from ShopperTrak, a research firm that counts shoppers at 70,000 stores.
TV prices are falling almost twice as fast as they did earlier this year amid a glut. They're selling for 15-20 percent less than Christmas 2009.
Earlier buying in November also stole some sales from Friday, said ShopperTrak co-founder Bill Martin. But 2.2 percent more customers came into stores on Black Friday than last year. ShopperTrak tracks sales at stores in shopping malls, not big discounters like Wal-Mart and Target, which draw much Black Friday spending.
Sharon Collins, 57, of Wilmington, N.C., said she had planned to stagger her holiday shopping but found a lot of good buys on Black Friday at Target and Kohl's. By Saturday she had spent about $1,000, reaping savings of about 50 percent. She said she'd budgeted $2,000 but won't need it.
"I am completely done." Collins said. "Unless it is something I really need, I am not going back."
The National Retail Federation trade group estimated on Sunday that 212 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend, up from 195 million last year. A fuller picture on spending will come Thursday when retailers report November revenue.
Online, spending rose more than 14 percent from Thanksgiving Day through Saturday, according to IBM's Coremetrics. The average order rose 14 percent; the number of items per order, 15 percent. The numbers were fueled by shoppers taking advantage of deals on Black Friday.
Online research firm comScore Inc. reported late Sunday that online spending in November through Friday rose 13 percent to $11.6 billion, compared with the same 26 days a year ago.
On Thanksgiving, traditionally a lighter day for online spending, e-commerce sales rose to $407 million, up 28 percent from last year. That was helped by more stores pushing exclusive deals. Online spending is still a small piece of the holiday pie -- 8-10 percent by various estimates.
Online sellers are stretching what they call Cyber Monday promotions all week in an effort to attract shoppers.
"We're expecting the biggest Cyber Monday. We're seeing double-digit growth rates, and we don't expect it to stop," said Jerry Storch, CEO of Toys R Us, which is offering discounts on toys from Little Tikes to Imaginarium.
Cyber Monday got its name from the National Retail Federation when computer shopping was starting to become popular. People returning to work after the holiday weekend would shop online on office computers. As more homes got high-speed Internet service, Cyber Monday became less of a factor.
This year, shoppers' approach to the holidays has shifted, shaped by retailers. Black Friday is still expected to be the busiest day of the year, but spending was pulled forward as stores from Best Buy to Sears promoted discounts earlier in the month. They often pitched them as "Black Friday doorbusters" weeks before the real thing. More stores opened on Thanksgiving this year, too.
"You are going to have to look at the overall month, instead of just Black Friday," said Laura Gurski, retail practice leader at A.T. Kearney.
Lauren Beckley, a 28-year-old retail co-manager in Cincinnati, said she got a promotion at work this year but still plans to cut her holiday spending by 50 percent. This year, rather than scrambling at the last minute, she started shopping in July, taking advantage of "Christmas in July" promotions that were embraced by more retailers this year.
"I think I am bargain hunting a little more," said Beckley while browsing for DVDs at a Best Buy in suburban Cincinnati on Saturday.
Stores hope to keep shoppers coming back with continuous deals and early-morning events on weekends. But some industry analysts question whether the lull between Thanksgiving weekend and the days before Christmas will be even more pronounced than usual.
"I believe customers will be waiting for the next round of deals," Gurski added.
Stifel Nicolaus analyst Richard Jaffe described the weekend as a "success."
"I think retailers have won the battle of driving customers into the stores, but have they won the war? We won't know until January," he said.
Amy Adoniz, general store manager at Best Buy's Union Square store in Manhattan, reported steady traffic through the weekend after the frenzy Friday. The best sellers have been TVs and laptop computers, but shoppers are also throwing in extra items like Blu-ray players and cables that they hadn't planned, she said. They're also springing for more expensive items, she said.
Mall operators Taubman Centers Inc. and Macerich Co. both reported sales and traffic gains compared with last year, and traffic remained steady through the weekend. Both reported that shoppers' buying for themselves remained strong. Footwear and clothing were big sellers.
Analysts are also watching stores' inventories. Earlier this fall, many retailers worried they'd ordered too much holiday merchandise in the spring when the economy appeared to be strengthening.
There was scattered evidence those worries continue. Gap offered 50 percent discounts throughout its stores until 10 a.m. Friday, rather than discounting fewer items to draw shoppers.
Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group, said Sunday that she believed inventories were appropriate and retailer profits aren't in danger yet. Dec. 15-24, which accounts for 40 percent of holiday business, will tell the tale.
"It's the crux of the season," she said.
AP Business Writer Chip Cutter in Cincinnati contributed to this report.
Saturday, 27 November 2010
What recession? Shoppers eat up Black Friday deals
For one day at least, you could almost imagine the recession never happened. Millions of the nation's shoppers braved rain and cold to crowd stores while others grabbed online bargains on what could be the busiest Black Friday ever.
Early signs pointed to bigger crowds at many stores including Best Buy, Sears, Macy's and Toys R Us, some of which had earlier openings than past years or even round-the-clock hours. Minnesota's Mall of America and mall operators Taubman Centers Inc. and Macerich Co. also reported more customers than last year.
But the most encouraging sign for retailing and for the economy was what Americans were throwing in their carts. Shoppers still clutched lists and the buying frenzy was focused on the deals on TVs and toys, but many were treating themselves while they bought gifts for others, adding items like boots, sumptuous sweaters, jewelry and even dresses for special occasions.
Elayne Breton and her daughter Michelle got to Maryland's Mall in Columbia around 7 a.m. A few hours later, Michelle had picked out several presents for herself, including a pair of UGG boots, perfume and an iPod Touch. At Nordstrom, she scored a long-sleeved purple shirt that her mother let her wear out of the store.
"Last year we were careful," said Elayne, whose husband's beer distribution business has started to pick up again. "This year we'll do more."
The strong Black Friday builds on retailers' momentum after a solid start to November. Shoppers who can afford it are buying more nonessentials, like jewelry and luxury goods.
"Last year, consumers were extremely into the basics, the socks, the pillows," said Keith Jelinek, director of the global retail practice at consulting firm AlixPartners. "This year, they're hungry to dress up their wardrobes, their homes. Shoppers were buying items with a little more pizazz, trendier sweaters, sheets in higher thread counts."
He cautioned that they're not looking to replace everything -- just looking for a few special items. "They're still very value-conscious," he added.
Macy's CEO Terry Lundgren said there were 7,000 people outside its Manhattan flagship store for its 4 a.m. opening, up from 5,000 people a year ago.
"The difference between this year and last year was that last year, people had a budget and a list. They're doing the same thing this year but they're also buying for themselves," he said. Among some of the hot sellers were a luggage set for $49.99 and $39.99 cashmere sweaters.
He noted that two groups that helped fuel customer traffic were young shoppers, ages 15 to 25, and men, both of whom were buying for themselves.
Sharply reduced prices on flat-screen TVs helped fuel many stores' sales, according to Marshal Cohen, market research analyst at NPD Group Inc. Stores were grappling with a glut of TVs heading into the season because they had overestimated consumer demand.
Research firm ShopperTrak is expected to release Black Friday data on Saturday, but a full picture of how retailers fared for the overall weekend won't be known until Thursday when major retailers report their monthly sales results.
For the economy, the question remains: Will shoppers keep it up?
Nearly 15 million people remain unemployed, and concerns about job security cloud consumer confidence. Spending is picking up but has not returned to pre-recession levels. And shoppers haven't let go of many cautious habits learned from the Great Recession.
Many purchased with cash, and layaway remained popular as shoppers try to budget. Sears reported that consumers were setting aside items like Nordic treadmills that were on sale for $399, a savings of $400, to be delivered after the holidays.
Credit cards were staying inside many wallets.
"Now that I'm debt-free, I want to keep it that way," said Desiree Banks, who was at Best Buy in Macedonia, Ohio, with a stack of DVDS for $3.99 each.
Shoppers did their homework, researching deals on websites. Stores made planning easier by touting their bargains last week.
"Every year, we get more refined," said Deb Brown, 42, who was at the Bellevue Square Mall in Bellevue, Wash. She came from White Rock, British Columbia.
Many teens bucked the bargain-hunting trend, shopping full force -- and paying full price -- at high-end stores like Hollister and American Eagle Outfitters, according to mall officials. That suggests that parents, feeling more financially secure, are giving their children extra spending money, said Jharonne Martis, director of consumer research at Thomson Research.
A big worry is that some of the solid buying earlier in November could steal thunder from the rest of the season and leave a deeper lull between Thanksgiving weekend and the few days before Christmas.
Clearly, stores worked hard to draw shoppers in for Black Friday and earlier, with more deals and expanded hours that allowed people to get shopping soon after their Thanksgiving dinner.
A number of stores including Old Navy, Toys R Us and Sears opened on Thanksgiving Day. Toys R Us was counting on getting an extra boost by opening 24 hours straight, starting at 10 p.m. on Thanksgiving. Many stores had trotted out the "Black Friday" label on sales as far back as October.
Best Buy Co. started its holiday TV ads 11 days earlier this year than last year. CEO Brian Dunn said customer counts were showing high-single-digit percentage increases Friday morning compared to last year. He said shoppers were throwing in items like Blu-ray players to go with early morning bargains that started at 5 a.m.
"Traffic was fast and furious. ... We started earlier and we have more TV (commercials). I think both of these things helped," Dunn said in an interview with The Associated Press.
Wal-Mart, which had most stores open around the clock, reported the top five selling electronic items included an Emerson 32-inch LCD HDTV for $198. Hot toys included $10 Barbies and $4 Zhu Zhu pets, which were last year's hot hit.
Thanksgiving weekend is huge for retailers. In recent years, Black Friday -- called that because the surge of shoppers could take retailers into profitability, or "the black," for the year -- has been the busiest shopping day of the year, according to data from ShopperTrak.
Black Friday is generally not as big for online retailers as Monday after Thanksgiving -- known as Cyber Monday -- but many were already off to a good start. By mid-afternoon Friday, eBags sales soared 69.5 percent compared with a year ago.
The retail blitz doesn't make or break the holiday season. In fact, shoppers seem to be procrastinating more every year, giving retailers some nail-biting moments waiting for sales the last few days before Christmas.
Last year, the Thanksgiving shopping weekend accounted for 12.3 percent of overall holiday revenue, according to ShopperTrak. Black Friday made up about half of that.
AP Business Writers Mae Anderson in New York; Emily Fredrix in Cleveland; Ashley Heher in Chicago; Sarah Skidmore in Portland, Ore.; Jessica Mintz in Bellevue, Wash., and Ellen Gibson in Columbia, Md.; contributed to this report.
Early signs pointed to bigger crowds at many stores including Best Buy, Sears, Macy's and Toys R Us, some of which had earlier openings than past years or even round-the-clock hours. Minnesota's Mall of America and mall operators Taubman Centers Inc. and Macerich Co. also reported more customers than last year.
But the most encouraging sign for retailing and for the economy was what Americans were throwing in their carts. Shoppers still clutched lists and the buying frenzy was focused on the deals on TVs and toys, but many were treating themselves while they bought gifts for others, adding items like boots, sumptuous sweaters, jewelry and even dresses for special occasions.
Elayne Breton and her daughter Michelle got to Maryland's Mall in Columbia around 7 a.m. A few hours later, Michelle had picked out several presents for herself, including a pair of UGG boots, perfume and an iPod Touch. At Nordstrom, she scored a long-sleeved purple shirt that her mother let her wear out of the store.
"Last year we were careful," said Elayne, whose husband's beer distribution business has started to pick up again. "This year we'll do more."
The strong Black Friday builds on retailers' momentum after a solid start to November. Shoppers who can afford it are buying more nonessentials, like jewelry and luxury goods.
"Last year, consumers were extremely into the basics, the socks, the pillows," said Keith Jelinek, director of the global retail practice at consulting firm AlixPartners. "This year, they're hungry to dress up their wardrobes, their homes. Shoppers were buying items with a little more pizazz, trendier sweaters, sheets in higher thread counts."
He cautioned that they're not looking to replace everything -- just looking for a few special items. "They're still very value-conscious," he added.
Macy's CEO Terry Lundgren said there were 7,000 people outside its Manhattan flagship store for its 4 a.m. opening, up from 5,000 people a year ago.
"The difference between this year and last year was that last year, people had a budget and a list. They're doing the same thing this year but they're also buying for themselves," he said. Among some of the hot sellers were a luggage set for $49.99 and $39.99 cashmere sweaters.
He noted that two groups that helped fuel customer traffic were young shoppers, ages 15 to 25, and men, both of whom were buying for themselves.
Sharply reduced prices on flat-screen TVs helped fuel many stores' sales, according to Marshal Cohen, market research analyst at NPD Group Inc. Stores were grappling with a glut of TVs heading into the season because they had overestimated consumer demand.
Research firm ShopperTrak is expected to release Black Friday data on Saturday, but a full picture of how retailers fared for the overall weekend won't be known until Thursday when major retailers report their monthly sales results.
For the economy, the question remains: Will shoppers keep it up?
Nearly 15 million people remain unemployed, and concerns about job security cloud consumer confidence. Spending is picking up but has not returned to pre-recession levels. And shoppers haven't let go of many cautious habits learned from the Great Recession.
Many purchased with cash, and layaway remained popular as shoppers try to budget. Sears reported that consumers were setting aside items like Nordic treadmills that were on sale for $399, a savings of $400, to be delivered after the holidays.
Credit cards were staying inside many wallets.
"Now that I'm debt-free, I want to keep it that way," said Desiree Banks, who was at Best Buy in Macedonia, Ohio, with a stack of DVDS for $3.99 each.
Shoppers did their homework, researching deals on websites. Stores made planning easier by touting their bargains last week.
"Every year, we get more refined," said Deb Brown, 42, who was at the Bellevue Square Mall in Bellevue, Wash. She came from White Rock, British Columbia.
Many teens bucked the bargain-hunting trend, shopping full force -- and paying full price -- at high-end stores like Hollister and American Eagle Outfitters, according to mall officials. That suggests that parents, feeling more financially secure, are giving their children extra spending money, said Jharonne Martis, director of consumer research at Thomson Research.
A big worry is that some of the solid buying earlier in November could steal thunder from the rest of the season and leave a deeper lull between Thanksgiving weekend and the few days before Christmas.
Clearly, stores worked hard to draw shoppers in for Black Friday and earlier, with more deals and expanded hours that allowed people to get shopping soon after their Thanksgiving dinner.
A number of stores including Old Navy, Toys R Us and Sears opened on Thanksgiving Day. Toys R Us was counting on getting an extra boost by opening 24 hours straight, starting at 10 p.m. on Thanksgiving. Many stores had trotted out the "Black Friday" label on sales as far back as October.
Best Buy Co. started its holiday TV ads 11 days earlier this year than last year. CEO Brian Dunn said customer counts were showing high-single-digit percentage increases Friday morning compared to last year. He said shoppers were throwing in items like Blu-ray players to go with early morning bargains that started at 5 a.m.
"Traffic was fast and furious. ... We started earlier and we have more TV (commercials). I think both of these things helped," Dunn said in an interview with The Associated Press.
Wal-Mart, which had most stores open around the clock, reported the top five selling electronic items included an Emerson 32-inch LCD HDTV for $198. Hot toys included $10 Barbies and $4 Zhu Zhu pets, which were last year's hot hit.
Thanksgiving weekend is huge for retailers. In recent years, Black Friday -- called that because the surge of shoppers could take retailers into profitability, or "the black," for the year -- has been the busiest shopping day of the year, according to data from ShopperTrak.
Black Friday is generally not as big for online retailers as Monday after Thanksgiving -- known as Cyber Monday -- but many were already off to a good start. By mid-afternoon Friday, eBags sales soared 69.5 percent compared with a year ago.
The retail blitz doesn't make or break the holiday season. In fact, shoppers seem to be procrastinating more every year, giving retailers some nail-biting moments waiting for sales the last few days before Christmas.
Last year, the Thanksgiving shopping weekend accounted for 12.3 percent of overall holiday revenue, according to ShopperTrak. Black Friday made up about half of that.
AP Business Writers Mae Anderson in New York; Emily Fredrix in Cleveland; Ashley Heher in Chicago; Sarah Skidmore in Portland, Ore.; Jessica Mintz in Bellevue, Wash., and Ellen Gibson in Columbia, Md.; contributed to this report.
Debt Consolidation Has the Answers
The economy has taken a hard hit, and with that, many consumers have fallen on hard times. With the pressure of creditors, many consumers are lost and are unsure of what to do. Debt consolidation seems to be a last resort for those who are trying to find a way out. With job loss and employers cutting hours, many families are no longer bringing in the income that they once did when the economy was healthier, and many of them are feeling defeated.
The professionals know how to negotiate your current debt down with the creditors, and most likely will reduce the amount of money that is actually owed. Many times the consumer will pay back a smaller percentage of the debt, which allows consumers to pay their bills and continue to survive at their current income. These decisions can be difficult and it is always a good idea to seek the advice of professionals.
When contacting a company that specializes in this, be honest about your debt. They will ask many questions including current income, what the total debt is, and so on. Once they have this information, they will discuss all of the options. There are many people in this same situation and they are there to help you, so make sure that they address all your concerns.
When entering into an agreement with a consolidation company, all of your bills will be discussed and then a personal plan will be created. The company will discuss how the program works, the length of time this plan is for, and what the total amount paid back will be when the program is completed. A good company will be available and easy to contact during the entire program.
Once the program begins, your worker will offer advice on how to handle phone calls and letters. There are ways of handling creditors, and your worker will discuss how to respond to them. Be sure to send any letters from the creditors to the company that is working with your creditors, as they will need that for your file.
Being in debt and unable to pay creditors is a very difficult situation for anyone. Most people find themselves in this position unexpectedly, and it leaves them feeling shameful and embarrassed. Contacting a debt collection agency can get everything back on track and will provide a sense of control again. Debt consolidators are trained with helping people who find themselves in this difficult situation.
When you make the decision to seek out a debt consolidation company, take some time to gather all of your information. Bank statements, monthly statements from creditors, and possibly employee information are some of the information they will be asking for. Being prepared from the start will help move things along and get things going.
If you are considering debt consolidation, do all your homework and ask questions. Professionals are well trained and have helped many consumers before you, and will give you all of the attention you will need.
The professionals know how to negotiate your current debt down with the creditors, and most likely will reduce the amount of money that is actually owed. Many times the consumer will pay back a smaller percentage of the debt, which allows consumers to pay their bills and continue to survive at their current income. These decisions can be difficult and it is always a good idea to seek the advice of professionals.
When contacting a company that specializes in this, be honest about your debt. They will ask many questions including current income, what the total debt is, and so on. Once they have this information, they will discuss all of the options. There are many people in this same situation and they are there to help you, so make sure that they address all your concerns.
When entering into an agreement with a consolidation company, all of your bills will be discussed and then a personal plan will be created. The company will discuss how the program works, the length of time this plan is for, and what the total amount paid back will be when the program is completed. A good company will be available and easy to contact during the entire program.
Once the program begins, your worker will offer advice on how to handle phone calls and letters. There are ways of handling creditors, and your worker will discuss how to respond to them. Be sure to send any letters from the creditors to the company that is working with your creditors, as they will need that for your file.
Being in debt and unable to pay creditors is a very difficult situation for anyone. Most people find themselves in this position unexpectedly, and it leaves them feeling shameful and embarrassed. Contacting a debt collection agency can get everything back on track and will provide a sense of control again. Debt consolidators are trained with helping people who find themselves in this difficult situation.
When you make the decision to seek out a debt consolidation company, take some time to gather all of your information. Bank statements, monthly statements from creditors, and possibly employee information are some of the information they will be asking for. Being prepared from the start will help move things along and get things going.
If you are considering debt consolidation, do all your homework and ask questions. Professionals are well trained and have helped many consumers before you, and will give you all of the attention you will need.
Thursday, 25 November 2010
Thanksgiving sales bring shoppers, grumbles
NEW YORK (AP) -- Not all Americans tucked into turkey with their families on Thanksgiving. Some were out shopping, hitting sales ahead of the crowds expected Friday.
After a year of cautious spending and worry over an uncertain economy and high unemployment, more stores this year extended hours into Thanksgiving Day, a day when stores are traditionally closed.
Many grumble about the relentless march of commercialism creeping into the holiday. But at least some shoppers took the bait.
While crowds appeared relatively light compared with the weekend ahead, the extended hours drew in overseas visitors, those who have to work Friday and some who couldn't resist a good deal.
Sears, Kmart and some Sports Authority, Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic stores were among those open Thursday.
At an Old Navy in Lutherville, Md., Brenda Tarver, 65, a retired postal employee from Baltimore, was dragged out of the house by her daughters, but was finding good deals on clothing.
"They've got good prices and a variety of items. A lot of things are 50 percent off," she said.
Willy Gerelbest, 45, a counselor from Brooklyn, was shopping at Kmart in New York for sneakers on sale for $9.99.
"I saw the advertising and just wanted to check it out," he said. "Tomorrow I have to work."
David Friedman, president of marketing for Sears Holdings Corp. said the decision to open 7 a.m.-noon on Thanksgiving Day stemmed from positive response to a similar "early Black Friday" sale in November, as well as success with Kmart, which Sears also owns and has been open on Thanksgiving for 19 years.
Workers will earn holiday pay and still be home in time for a Thanksgiving meal, Friedman said.
At the Sears store at the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minn., the largest U.S. shopping and entertainment complex, sales were fueled by a charity walk at the mall.
The walk -- and a good sale -- drew Helen Schultz, of White Bear Lake, Minn. She bought a 19-inch RCA LCD HDTV for $129.99, saving $70. But she said wouldn't have bought it Thursday if she hadn't been there for the charity walk.
"I don't think shopping should be done on Thanksgiving," Schultz said. "But they need to make money."
Toys R Us CEO Jerry Storch said the company decided to open at 10 p.m. Thanksgiving Day because reaction was so positive to the stores' midnight opening last year. Before that, stores opened at 5 a.m. on Friday. He expects brisk sales of hot toys like Santa-ma-jig, a green and red singing doll.
"Customers lined up at 8 p.m. on last year. They wanted us to open earlier," he said.
A similar promotional blitz greeted online shoppers Thursday, though the holiday isn't a bonanza there, either.
Last year, consumers spent about $300 million online on Thanksgiving, compared with $887 million on Cyber Monday, according to comScore.
According to Akamai Technologies, which tracks traffic to 270 retail sites, traffic peaked at 11 a.m. and was up about 14 percent from Wednesday.
Early data from Coremetrics, an IBM company, from early afternoon showed that online Thanksgiving Day sales were up about 10 percent over Thanksgiving a year ago. The average order size was down 18 percent from a year ago to $130.50, but that figures was getting bigger as the day went on.
John Thompson, senior vice president and general manager of Best Buy Inc.'s website, said this year the company reached out to its frequent online shoppers and gave them early access to deals.
"Thanksgiving Day is a day when we are seeing more and more consumers choose online as a place to begin their research and actually transact," he said.
With nearly 15 million unemployed in the U.S., some store workers were grateful for the holiday pay or extra time off that comes with working on a holiday.
Bryce Humerick, 21, of Towson, Md., a sales associate at the Old Navy store in Lutherville, said he was happy to be making time-and-a-half.
"I don't mind," he said. "My Thanksgiving dinner isn't until later."
Not everyone was so pleased.
In the hardware department of the Mall of America's Sears, John McDonough had volunteered to work, but he bemoaned the increasing commercialization of the holiday season in general.
"It's a crying shame," he said. "What has corporate America done to us?"
Sarah Brumfield in Lutherville, Md., and Steve Karnowski in Bloomington, Minn., contributed to this report.
After a year of cautious spending and worry over an uncertain economy and high unemployment, more stores this year extended hours into Thanksgiving Day, a day when stores are traditionally closed.
Many grumble about the relentless march of commercialism creeping into the holiday. But at least some shoppers took the bait.
While crowds appeared relatively light compared with the weekend ahead, the extended hours drew in overseas visitors, those who have to work Friday and some who couldn't resist a good deal.
Sears, Kmart and some Sports Authority, Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic stores were among those open Thursday.
At an Old Navy in Lutherville, Md., Brenda Tarver, 65, a retired postal employee from Baltimore, was dragged out of the house by her daughters, but was finding good deals on clothing.
"They've got good prices and a variety of items. A lot of things are 50 percent off," she said.
Willy Gerelbest, 45, a counselor from Brooklyn, was shopping at Kmart in New York for sneakers on sale for $9.99.
"I saw the advertising and just wanted to check it out," he said. "Tomorrow I have to work."
David Friedman, president of marketing for Sears Holdings Corp. said the decision to open 7 a.m.-noon on Thanksgiving Day stemmed from positive response to a similar "early Black Friday" sale in November, as well as success with Kmart, which Sears also owns and has been open on Thanksgiving for 19 years.
Workers will earn holiday pay and still be home in time for a Thanksgiving meal, Friedman said.
At the Sears store at the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minn., the largest U.S. shopping and entertainment complex, sales were fueled by a charity walk at the mall.
The walk -- and a good sale -- drew Helen Schultz, of White Bear Lake, Minn. She bought a 19-inch RCA LCD HDTV for $129.99, saving $70. But she said wouldn't have bought it Thursday if she hadn't been there for the charity walk.
"I don't think shopping should be done on Thanksgiving," Schultz said. "But they need to make money."
Toys R Us CEO Jerry Storch said the company decided to open at 10 p.m. Thanksgiving Day because reaction was so positive to the stores' midnight opening last year. Before that, stores opened at 5 a.m. on Friday. He expects brisk sales of hot toys like Santa-ma-jig, a green and red singing doll.
"Customers lined up at 8 p.m. on last year. They wanted us to open earlier," he said.
A similar promotional blitz greeted online shoppers Thursday, though the holiday isn't a bonanza there, either.
Last year, consumers spent about $300 million online on Thanksgiving, compared with $887 million on Cyber Monday, according to comScore.
According to Akamai Technologies, which tracks traffic to 270 retail sites, traffic peaked at 11 a.m. and was up about 14 percent from Wednesday.
Early data from Coremetrics, an IBM company, from early afternoon showed that online Thanksgiving Day sales were up about 10 percent over Thanksgiving a year ago. The average order size was down 18 percent from a year ago to $130.50, but that figures was getting bigger as the day went on.
John Thompson, senior vice president and general manager of Best Buy Inc.'s website, said this year the company reached out to its frequent online shoppers and gave them early access to deals.
"Thanksgiving Day is a day when we are seeing more and more consumers choose online as a place to begin their research and actually transact," he said.
With nearly 15 million unemployed in the U.S., some store workers were grateful for the holiday pay or extra time off that comes with working on a holiday.
Bryce Humerick, 21, of Towson, Md., a sales associate at the Old Navy store in Lutherville, said he was happy to be making time-and-a-half.
"I don't mind," he said. "My Thanksgiving dinner isn't until later."
Not everyone was so pleased.
In the hardware department of the Mall of America's Sears, John McDonough had volunteered to work, but he bemoaned the increasing commercialization of the holiday season in general.
"It's a crying shame," he said. "What has corporate America done to us?"
Sarah Brumfield in Lutherville, Md., and Steve Karnowski in Bloomington, Minn., contributed to this report.
Wednesday, 24 November 2010
The Global Economy Impacts Local Mortage Rates
For good or ill, mortage rates in Toronto Canada, in fact in the entire developed world are tied to external events. No matter how well or poorly the government manages finances, what other nations do affect how much the rates will rise or fall. Despite the uncertain economy, people still buy homes and find it necessary to find a mortgage no matter what the market conditions are. Some home buyers may hold off for a time but the fact is that economic conditions may well fluctuate for a good while.
That doesn't mean that people should stop financing their homes, buying a home makes economic sense than renting. However, it might mean that it is trickier to predict just what type of terms and rates will be good for the long term. Most people manage their own finances well but the market trends can confuse even the experts and this is where expert advice may be valuable.
While most people today are financially cautious and reasonably well educated on economics particularly when it comes to purchasing a Toronto home, there are conditions that even the experts can't predict. With that being said there are a few things that may help find the best mortgage rates and even ride with the changing market conditions. One of the primary things that can help is to arrange for a planned mortgage with the help of a financial professional.
While banks and mortgage companies have some insight into how mortgage rates in their own bank will go, they often can't share this with a prospective borrower. On the other hand, a mortgage broker makes it their business to research mortgage rates and even to investigate trends as much as possible. No one has a crystal ball, which will predict whether rates will continue to fall, stay steady or even rise the best bet for good advice might well be from a mortgage broker.
Of course, it is entirely possible that the shopper has already decided on what type of mortgage they want and even has a set period in which they want to accomplish this mortgage. Provided their income and credit rating is up to par, they need only search for the lender with the best mortgage rates. Again, either this is where the borrower must do a lot of legwork or a mortgage broker can come in handy to locate the lowest rates and help ease the loan through the process.
For every prospective home buyer who knows just exactly what type of mortgage terms he or she requires, there is one, which has no idea what they want or need. They want to buy a home, they want the lowest rates available and they want to ensure they can afford the payments in the future. Providing just the basic facts to a broker can give a broker enough information to recommend a couple of financial products and perhaps find the most desirable rates for that time.
There are people who have dealt with one bank all their lives. For those people that bank is the most desirable and in fact, the only option they will consider for a mortgage. However, in these difficult times although loyalty is good when it comes to an investment as large as a home and mortgage it might be better to consider looking at several mortgage alternatives.
The experts agree that there is no sure way to predict the long term future of mortgage rates and most home buyers can only base their decisions on the best information they have available to them right now. Even so it is important to secure the best rates and then possibly to lock them in. Waiting works only so long and then no matter how cautious the individual is they must make a move to secure their home and future.
That doesn't mean that people should stop financing their homes, buying a home makes economic sense than renting. However, it might mean that it is trickier to predict just what type of terms and rates will be good for the long term. Most people manage their own finances well but the market trends can confuse even the experts and this is where expert advice may be valuable.
While most people today are financially cautious and reasonably well educated on economics particularly when it comes to purchasing a Toronto home, there are conditions that even the experts can't predict. With that being said there are a few things that may help find the best mortgage rates and even ride with the changing market conditions. One of the primary things that can help is to arrange for a planned mortgage with the help of a financial professional.
While banks and mortgage companies have some insight into how mortgage rates in their own bank will go, they often can't share this with a prospective borrower. On the other hand, a mortgage broker makes it their business to research mortgage rates and even to investigate trends as much as possible. No one has a crystal ball, which will predict whether rates will continue to fall, stay steady or even rise the best bet for good advice might well be from a mortgage broker.
Of course, it is entirely possible that the shopper has already decided on what type of mortgage they want and even has a set period in which they want to accomplish this mortgage. Provided their income and credit rating is up to par, they need only search for the lender with the best mortgage rates. Again, either this is where the borrower must do a lot of legwork or a mortgage broker can come in handy to locate the lowest rates and help ease the loan through the process.
For every prospective home buyer who knows just exactly what type of mortgage terms he or she requires, there is one, which has no idea what they want or need. They want to buy a home, they want the lowest rates available and they want to ensure they can afford the payments in the future. Providing just the basic facts to a broker can give a broker enough information to recommend a couple of financial products and perhaps find the most desirable rates for that time.
There are people who have dealt with one bank all their lives. For those people that bank is the most desirable and in fact, the only option they will consider for a mortgage. However, in these difficult times although loyalty is good when it comes to an investment as large as a home and mortgage it might be better to consider looking at several mortgage alternatives.
The experts agree that there is no sure way to predict the long term future of mortgage rates and most home buyers can only base their decisions on the best information they have available to them right now. Even so it is important to secure the best rates and then possibly to lock them in. Waiting works only so long and then no matter how cautious the individual is they must make a move to secure their home and future.
Monday, 22 November 2010
Reasons For Breakups in a Relationship
Just imagine how it would be like if you found someone to manage your love life in every state. Instead of a property management company, you will hear Lowell relationship management and Bradford relationship management. Apart from being funny it will actually help relationships become stronger and reduce the rate of divorces and breakups.
Finding a manager to heal your broken heart, and fix your relationship with a magic wizard is not a common practice. You must know that there are reasons behind everything. So if you know the reasons behind breakups beforehand you can not only save your relationship, but also your self-esteem from being shattered. Moreover you can figure out how to prevent yourself from such situations.
Nearly everyone has experienced or is likely to experience a relationship breakup, and anyone can witness that it is one of the most painful periods in your life. It can happen during the dating period or sometimes may occur after being settled as a family which is given the name of divorce. Either way watching out for the signs and attempting to fix the problems in time can help you stay with the most precious person on the planet who completes your world. However it is not possible if you are unaware of the reasons that make such situations occur.
Here are few reasons of breakups. The first being the past fears meaning that you may have had a weak relationship in the past and you may not have healed your broken heart yet. It results in difficulty to trust your current partner or open your heart completely to him or her. Such incidents from past will inevitably bring up fears such as not being good enough, attractive enough, wealthy enough or even the feeling of abandonment.
Second reason that leads to breakups is due to broken promises. Trust is the foundation of any relationship and once that is busted it is hard to rebuild it. Your words and promises are being watched closely by your partner, and every time you break a verbal agreement it could take you a step away from them.
The feeling of not being loved, understood, appreciated or valued is the main reason why most marriages and relationships do not work out. Taking your relationship for granted and prioritizing other things over the loved one every time can make you regret for doing so.
Being needy all the time can be the reason for a relationship crash. Demanding your partner to always be around and not allowing his or her space can irritate him or her and eventually result in a relationship downfall.
Being selfish, unsupportive, boring and not listening enough to your partner can create misunderstandings. Although all these things you did were unintentional, but also the reasons behind your breakup. If you have cheated your partner, do not count it as a reason because then breakup is exactly what you deserve.
Sometimes you may refuse to believe the reason, why the breakup or divorce happened, as it maybe petty and totally controllable. Knowing it in time could have saved your relationship along with the pain which you might never get over with.
Finding a manager to heal your broken heart, and fix your relationship with a magic wizard is not a common practice. You must know that there are reasons behind everything. So if you know the reasons behind breakups beforehand you can not only save your relationship, but also your self-esteem from being shattered. Moreover you can figure out how to prevent yourself from such situations.
Nearly everyone has experienced or is likely to experience a relationship breakup, and anyone can witness that it is one of the most painful periods in your life. It can happen during the dating period or sometimes may occur after being settled as a family which is given the name of divorce. Either way watching out for the signs and attempting to fix the problems in time can help you stay with the most precious person on the planet who completes your world. However it is not possible if you are unaware of the reasons that make such situations occur.
Here are few reasons of breakups. The first being the past fears meaning that you may have had a weak relationship in the past and you may not have healed your broken heart yet. It results in difficulty to trust your current partner or open your heart completely to him or her. Such incidents from past will inevitably bring up fears such as not being good enough, attractive enough, wealthy enough or even the feeling of abandonment.
Second reason that leads to breakups is due to broken promises. Trust is the foundation of any relationship and once that is busted it is hard to rebuild it. Your words and promises are being watched closely by your partner, and every time you break a verbal agreement it could take you a step away from them.
The feeling of not being loved, understood, appreciated or valued is the main reason why most marriages and relationships do not work out. Taking your relationship for granted and prioritizing other things over the loved one every time can make you regret for doing so.
Being needy all the time can be the reason for a relationship crash. Demanding your partner to always be around and not allowing his or her space can irritate him or her and eventually result in a relationship downfall.
Being selfish, unsupportive, boring and not listening enough to your partner can create misunderstandings. Although all these things you did were unintentional, but also the reasons behind your breakup. If you have cheated your partner, do not count it as a reason because then breakup is exactly what you deserve.
Sometimes you may refuse to believe the reason, why the breakup or divorce happened, as it maybe petty and totally controllable. Knowing it in time could have saved your relationship along with the pain which you might never get over with.
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